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Aurora season: the odds, not tonight's number
Aurora season: the odds, not tonight's number: twenty years of geomagnetic indices turned into what people actually want before booking a trip: the…
This launch guide maps the topic, the source base and the practical questions. Check the linked official authority before acting on a rule, deadline, price or safety requirement.
What this guide covers
Twenty years of geomagnetic indices turned into what people actually want before booking a trip: the probability of a visible aurora by month, by latitude band and by hour, the equinox peaks in March and September, where the solar cycle sits now, and the moon and cloud odds stacked on top. A page per latitude band and per northern town, each with the honest sentence about how often "Kp 5 over Tartu" turns into anything you can see.
How to use it
Use Aurora season: the odds, not tonight's number to compare stable place facts and official facilities. Live opening, access and disruption information should always be confirmed with the operator before travel.
The page keeps the main question, its evidence base and its limits together in one canonical place. That makes it useful as a quick orientation and avoids splitting a broad subject into shallow pages before each narrower answer has enough verified material of its own.
Search vocabulary in four languages
Terminology changes across borders. These are example phrases people use for the same subject in Estonian, Finnish, Russian and English; they are included as a practical vocabulary aid, not as hidden keywords.
| Language | Example phrase |
|---|---|
| Estonian | virmalised millal Eestis näha |
| Finnish | revontulet milloin näkyy |
| Russian | северное сияние в Эстонии когда |
| English | aurora season Baltics when |
Evidence and provenance
The evidence map below records the primary, official or openly licensed material chosen for this guide. It is deliberately visible so a reader can tell the difference between a rule published by an authority, a measured dataset and an editorial explanation.
Source: NOAA SWPC Kp and solar-cycle archives (public domain), FMI magnetometer and all-sky camera open data (CC BY 4.0). · checked 2026-09-09
Source names are preserved even where an authority changes its web address. No figure is added to this launch page unless it is already present in the cited source description or can be computed from a named dataset.
Scope and boundaries
the /utilities dark-sky conditions board is tonight's live figure; this is the climatology and the trip-planning answer.
Connected TempoLife guides
The following paths are the intentional hand-offs named in the brief. They keep adjacent subjects separate while making the next useful reference easy to find.
Why it belongs on TempoLife
/winter.
Frequently asked questions
What does this guide cover?
Twenty years of geomagnetic indices turned into what people actually want before booking a trip: the probability of a visible aurora by month, by latitude band and by hour, the equinox peaks in March and September, where the solar cycle sits now, and the moon and cloud odds stacked on top. A page per latitude band and per northern town, each with the honest sentence about how often "Kp 5 over Tartu" turns into anything you can see.
What evidence does it use?
NOAA SWPC Kp and solar-cycle archives (public domain), FMI magnetometer and all-sky camera open data (CC BY 4.0).
Where does this guide stop?
the /utilities dark-sky conditions board is tonight's live figure; this is the climatology and the trip-planning answer.
Turn the reference into a routine
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